Bitcoin (BTC) – Next Stop $3,500

Back in March 2018, I wrote a Quora post on Bitcoin price forecast that it’s headed toward the region of $3,000-$3,500.

You can view this post right here – https://www.quora.com/How-much-is-the-lowest-you-are-expecting-bitcoin-to-hit-in-2018

If you can’t be bothered to check out the link, here’s a quick snapshot of the post:

bitcoin-price-prediction-drop-to-4000

Whilst I’ve carried out due diligence when writing that post and I was confident that the crypto winter is around the corner, I expected Bitcoin to drop off the cliff already.

I still stand by what I’ve forecast earlier, and here’s why.


Expect Bitcoin to go as low as $3,200

We are at the end of October now, in a massively confined price range and Bitcoin keeps retesting the $6,200 support.

Here’s a daily chart of BTC/USD:

bitcoin-daily-chart-october

There are a few interesting things on the chart:

  • Descending triangle
  • Supply is meeting demand
  • Extremely low volume

Any descending triangle is bad news — but more so, when the triangle is made up of support and demand lines on low volume.

Historically speaking, Bitcoin had always broke down below at the end of similar pattern, but never on a macro time frame like daily.

To calculate the target of the triangle, you take the height of the supply line and marry it with the beginning of the demand line.

This will give off two variables: the top at $9,000 and the local bottom of $5,765.

When you subtract $9,000 — $5,765 you will end up with a possible target of $3,235.

The gasoline on fire here is the low volume and the large green candle with an extremely long wick on the October 15th.

That’s an anomaly that should be interpreted as major weakness because a lot of effort had gone into pushing the price higher with inadequate end result.

This shows us that the bulls are weak and the bears had gotten an upper hand as Bitcoin approaches the end of the triangle.


Possible trades

It seems also impossible that Bitcoin would drop down to these levels.

Will it actually happen? — time will tell, but I would urge you to come out of long positions despite the fact that the $6,200 support level hasn’t been breached since February.

At least, put on the brakes and set stop loss orders at around $5,925 if you’re a swing trader.

For macro traders, I would recommend getting out of longs and seek to establish short positions at around $6,450 with SL just above $7,050 to target $3,525.

The above short strategy will generate an R:R of 5 and yield a potential 45% return.

Good luck and till next time!


Tip jar:

BTC – 3DsiPb26ugH4N7urkq6P3T9meSp2NMNqan

BCHABC – qrr63e483sl5c0rzqjf8pnds26pegex0h52gc6tndx

ETH – 0x2F678cF4A0bc4B2D6F4e22A3A1bfC4BA746BDDBe

LTC – MU4iw9ydysAu9egDsp6gmiQ45DX6ujYBqQ

Disclaimer: You should do your own due diligence, research and analysis before you invest any money in cryptocurrencies. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile and classed as high-risk investments. You should never invest any money unless you’re prepared to lose your capital. The author of this article holds the said assets and might be biased towards them.

 

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